Misery Index


Last week at our Market Forecast events, Chief Economist Matthew Gardner shared, among many stats, his famous “Misery Index.”

A valuable statistic with a funny title.

The Misery Index simply measures inflation plus unemployment.

It’s an effective way to look at our Nation’s economy.

Today’s Index sits just below 6%. Back in October 2011, it was close to 13%.

The lowest it has been in the last 7 years is October 2015 when it was near 5%.

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If you would like a copy of the entire Forecast presentation, go ahead and reach out to us.

We would be happy to put it in your hands.

Posted on January 28, 2019 at 9:36 pm
Kyle Basnar | Category: Northern Colorado Real estate, Northern Colorado Realtor | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Our Forecast

This past Wednesday and Thursday evenings we had the pleasure of hosting our annual Market Forecast events in Denver and Fort Collins.

Thank you to the 700 people who attended. We appreciate your support!

In case you missed the events, here are some highlights including our forecast for price appreciation in 2019:
• In 2018 Prices went up:
o 8% in Fort Collins
o 8% in Loveland
o 8.5% in Greeley
o 8% in Metro Denver

Inventory is (finally) showing signs of increasing:
o Up 25% in Northern Colorado
o Up 45% in Metro Denver

• There are distinct differences in months of inventory across different price ranges = opportunity for the move up buyer.

• There are several reasons why we don’t see a housing bubble forming:
o New home starts along the Front Range are roughly 60% of pre-bubble highs 14 years ago.
o Americans have more equity in their homes than ever, $6 Trillion!
o The average FICO score of home buyers is significantly higher than the long-term average.
o The home ownership rate is back to the long-term average.

• Our 2019 Price Appreciation Forecast:
o 6% in Fort Collins
o 6% in Loveland
o 7% in Greeley
o 6% in Metro Denver

If you would like a copy of the presentation, go ahead and reach out to us. We would be happy to put it in your hands!

Posted on January 21, 2019 at 5:52 pm
Kyle Basnar | Category: First Time Home Buyer, Fort Collins Real Estate, Market News, Northern Colorado Real estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Still Up

All the talk of the market cooling off might make someone think that prices must be going down.

The truth is prices are still going up.

Here are the latest year-over-year appreciation numbers from the Federal Housing Finance Authority (they track 243 markets all across the Country):

Colorado Springs 11.44%

Greeley 10.53%

Denver 9.97%

Boulder 9.89%

Fort Collins/Loveland 8.64%

Posted on December 27, 2018 at 7:06 pm
Kyle Basnar | Category: For Buyers, Fort Collins Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real estate, Real Estate Market Update | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Waiting and Waiting

Anytime the market cools off we sometimes hear prospective buyers say “I think I’ll wait for the market to correct, then I’ll buy after prices come way down.”

The reality is this… History shows that this wouldn’t be a good strategy.

Our go-to source on price appreciation is the Federal Housing Finance Authority who produces a quarterly home price index.  They have been tracking Larimer County for 41 years.

Their numbers show:

  • Yearly prices have decreased only 6 times in history
  • The average amount of that decrease is only 1.7%

So, someone who is waiting for prices to drop:

  • Might be waiting a long time
  • Might be disappointed that prices didn’t drop by all that much
Posted on December 17, 2018 at 10:46 pm
Kyle Basnar | Category: First Time Home Buyer, For Buyers, Fort Collins Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real estate, Real Estate Market Update | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Good Loan News

 

Here are two recently-announced pieces of really good news for home buyers.

• The Colorado Housing and Finance Authority recently raised the income limit for their down payment assistance program to $115,600.

Now more people can get help with a down payment.

• Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac raised their conforming loan limits so that more people can use a conforming loan and not be forced to use a ‘jumbo’ loan.

Contact us if you would like to hear how these pieces of news could help you.

Posted on December 11, 2018 at 8:03 pm
Kyle Basnar | Category: Fort Collins Real Estate, Fun Facts, Northern Colorado Real estate, Northern Colorado Realtor | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

83 Miles Per Hour

 

Pretend you have been driving on the Interstate at 100 miles per hour.

Also, pretend you have been doing that for a long time.

Now pretend you slow down to 83 miles per hour.

How would that feel?

It would probably feel slow, right?

83 miles per hour is a 17% decrease from 100. It may feel slow, but it’s still pretty fast.

How does this relate to real estate?

Well, the market has been moving fast for a long time.

It’s been going 100 miles per hour for at least two years (some would argue even longer).

We’ve recently seen a 17% change in terms of number of transactions that are occurring.

There were 17% fewer sales in October 2018 versus October 2017 in Metro Denver.

It feels slow because we’ve been driving so fast for so long. But, our market is still moving.

For example, prices are still up. So, remember, that it’s all relative.

Posted on November 15, 2018 at 10:16 pm
Kyle Basnar | Category: Blog, Fort Collins Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real estate, Northern Colorado Realtor | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

FUNdamentals

 

In times of change (like now), it’s valuable to look at the fundamentals of our market.

Let’s have some fun with fundamentals…

1.  Our economy is healthy – since 1990, the unemployment rate in Colorado has never been higher than the U.S. unemployment rate.  Ever.  Unemployment in Colorado sits at 2.7% today while the rate across the U.S. is 4.0%.

2.  People keep moving here – since 2005 our population has grown by just over a million people which is roughly 77,000 per year (about the size of Mile High Stadium).

3.  Our real estate outperforms other places – according the Federal Housing Finance Authority, Colorado is the #1 state for home price appreciation since 1990.

Posted on October 31, 2018 at 8:22 pm
Kyle Basnar | Category: Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , ,

What’s Starting?

Here are some interesting stats from our friends at Metro Study who study new home activity along the Front Range.

• New home starts are up 14% compared to last year – this is really good news and is helping to relieve the shortage of housing inventory

• Every product type saw an increase in starts compared to last year (single family, town-home and condominium)

• Condominiums saw the largest increase in starts by a long shot, up 112% over last year- this is excellent news for first time buyers and those looking for product in lower price ranges.

Posted on October 1, 2018 at 8:06 pm
Kyle Basnar | Category: Northern Colorado Real estate, Northern Colorado Realtor | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,